Support of the people in Zimbabwe

Of course it doesn’t matter what the international community thinks if an overwhelming majority of people within the country concerned back the policies of its government. History shows us that regimes, which enjoy the backing of a significant majority of its people, can ride the storm of international opprobrium for some time, especially if they have strong economies. Zimbabwe, to put it mildly, does not have a strong economy and so if Mugabe is to fly in the face of world opinion he will need the support of a significant majority, not just to win the election but also to endure the hardship of international isolation.

In the run up to the 2000 Parliamentary election I speculated about three possible scenarios. The first, and most negative from an MDC perspective, was that the MDC would win a majority of seats in the cities but because of intimidation would only win a smattering of rural seats and as a result would only win about 30 seats countrywide. The second was that the MDC would win convincingly in the cities and in certain rural areas that were traditionally anti ZANU (PF) and would garner between 50 and 60 votes. The third was that the MDC would win the cities and all rural areas aside from ZANU (PF)’s heartland and in doing so would win a Parliamentary majority of between 80 and 90 seats. In all my talks given at the time I believed that the second scenario was the most likely. The reason I mention this is that at the time I did not make outlandish predictions. I firmly believed, from the evidence before me at the time that ZANU (PF)’s intimidation of certain areas was still effective and as a result we could not win in those areas. Furthermore it was apparent that ZANU (PF) was still sufficiently unified to retain substantial support in its heartland.

From the evidence before me now I believe that, despite intimidation, electoral fraud and dirty tricks, there could well be a landslide victory in favour of MDC President Morgan Tsvangirai. I say so for the following reasons:

The MDC and Morgan Tsvangirai are now known and respected by both Zimbabweans and the international community (including SADC) whereas in 2000 they were not. The MDC came from ground zero to win 57 seats and 46% of the vote. That was achieved without a single elected structure in the party aside from the National Executive. The people of Zimbabwe now know there is a viable alternative government in waiting comprised of a young dynamic leadership committed to non-violence and the establishment of a genuinely democratic order. 

The MDC’s overwhelming support in urban areas is rock solid. The 82% majority achieved in the Bulawayo Mayoral election will be repeated in Harare, Gweru and Mutare. The recent victory in the Chegutu Mayoral election (right in ZANU (PF)’s heartland – and it is important to recall that we lost the Parliamentary seat in Chegutu in 2000, so we have gained ground) shows just how extensive our support is in urban areas. 

The MDC’s overwhelming support in the rural areas of Matabeleland has grown since the 2000 elections. Matabeleland North Province voted "Yes" (in favour of ZANU (PF) in the February 2000 referendum) and it was somewhat of a surprise when the MDC won every seat in the Province in June 2000. The reason for the surprise is that people in the Province suffered the brunt of the North Korean trained Fifth Brigade’s brutality in the 1980s. It is a Province still traumatised by those horrors. ZANU (PF) threatened a return of the Fifth Brigade in 2000 but it did not work. Since then ZANU (PF) has not been able to carry out its threat. Whilst ZANU (PF) has deployed army in the area to intimidate people they simply cannot afford to replicate the actions of the 5 Brigade because we live in a changed world – and the people living there know it. From information coming in to the MDC the rural people of Matabeleland will vote even more convincingly for President Tsvangirai than they did for individual MDC candidates. Let it not be forgotten as well that they also have far more reason to vote against Mugabe than they did against individual ZANU (PF) candidates. Mugabe after all is perceived by voters in the region as the architect of the 1980 atrocities. 

People living in the southern part of Midlands Province have a very similar outlook to those living in rural Matabeleland. That was demonstrated in the June 2000 elections when the MDC won all the Midlands seats south west of Kadoma. That support remains secure. In addition we are greatly encouraged by growing levels of support in the south east of Midlands including Zvishavane and areas bordering Masvingo Province (for reasons which will be explained later). We lost some of these constituencies heavily in 2000 and so the turn around in support has been remarkable. The only part of Midlands which remains problematic is the north west, the Gokwe area which has been heavily intimidated by ZANU (PF). But even there courageous MDC activists are holding the line and we will, at the very least, pick up the same number of votes we did in 2000, even if that is not a majority in those areas. 

In June 2000 we won all the seats in Manicaland along the eastern border by comfortable majorities save for Chipinge South, which was won by the ZANU Ndonga party. ZANU Ndonga, which up until his death in December 2000 was led by veteran Nationalist Ndabaningi Sithole, has held the Chipinge South seat with a large majority for over a decade. When Sithole died he should have been buried in Heroes Acre in Harare because of the major role he played in the liberation of Zimbabwe. However because of Mugabe’s vindictive and petty nature he was not and so was buried in the Chipinge district, Mugabe did not, obviously, attend the funeral but MDC President Tsvangirai did. In doing so Mugabe lost a great deal of support to Tsvangirai in this area (the two Chipinge seats have approximately 100,000 eligible voters between them). It is doubtful that ZANU Ndonga will even field a Presidential candidate. The MDC lost the western Manicaland seats by narrow majorities, including of course President Tsvangirai’s Buhera North seat (a loss subsequently set aside by the High Court due to irregularities). Since June 2000 MDC support in most of these areas has grown dramatically and, for example, President Tsvangirai is attracting massive crowds to his rallies in Buhera. In other words it now appears that the known quantity (see paragraph 1 above!) is now overwhelmingly popular. And finally who would criticise a bit of parochialism in these areas if they were to vote for a homeboy for President of Zimbabwe?! Whilst it does not always work – Al Gore lost in Tennessee – all the indications are that Manicaland Province will vote overwhelmingly for a local candidate as Texas did for George Bush. 

The three Mashonaland rural Provinces are ZANU (PF)’s heartland as demonstrated by their by-election victories there during 2001. It would be overly optimistic to expect President Tsvangirai to win a majority of votes in these Provinces which combined have a total of some 1,4 million registered voters. However what was significant about the 2001 by elections is that the MDC despite violence, bussing in of ZANU (PF) voters (which cannot be done as successfully in the Presidential elections) and electoral fraud, still managed to secure some 40% of the vote. Simple arithmetic shows that even if this trend continues Mugabe’s 60% of the vote in these areas, say 840000 votes, will almost be set off entirely by Tsvangirai’s vote in Harare alone (80% of the 800000 registered voters = 640000). But there are recent signs that Mugabe cannot even be assured of maintaining the margin enjoyed in 2000. The MDC victory in Chegutu must have stunned Mugabe for Chegutu is in Mashonaland West Province and only some 50 kms from Mugabe’s rural home – one can’t get much closer to the heart than that. The point is that even if Mugabe does secure a majority, even an overwhelming majority, in these areas it is simply not enough to overcome the deficit he faces in other areas. 

I have deliberately left the most heavily populated rural Province, Masvingo, until last. In 2000 the MDC won only 2 seats, Masvingo Central, an urban seat, and surprisingly Bikita West, a rural seat, the latter by a whisker. Bikita West was lost by the MDC to ZANU (PF) in a violent and fraudulently run by-election in January 2001 but, importantly, maintained its core support in that by-election. The MDC also won the Masvingo City Mayoral election in mid 2001. However in most of the Masvingo seats contested in 2000 the MDC lost fairly heavily. Things have however changed and once again Mugabe is his own worst enemy. Eddison Zvobgo is a veteran Nationalist politician and a ZANU (PF) stalwart. Prior to 2000 ZANU (PF) used to boast that Masvingo Province was "one party territory" and it would be fair to say that Zvobgo was the linchpin of the Province, if not its "King". Zvobgo to this day remains highly popular throughout Masvingo Province. However Mugabe inexplicably dropped Zvobgo from the cabinet and from the ZANU (PF) politburo in 2000 and since then Zvobgo has been in ZANU (PF)’s political wilderness. Zvobgo has even been ridiculed in the government-controlled press. In the Chronicle dated 7th January 2002 a ZANU (PF) cabinet minister as "an absent child of the party". These actions have clearly angered many people in Masvingo Province and it is doubtful if that they will vote for Mugabe in the same numbers as voted for individual ZANU (PF) members in June 2000. For example Zvobgo alone secured some 14000 votes to secure his Masvingo South Constituency; Mugabe is hardly likely to secure similar support, if any at all, in that Constituency given the way he has treated Zvobgo. But it gets worse for Mugabe. A Gallup poll conducted late last year showed a massive swing in support towards the MDC and Tsvangirai and the results of that poll have been borne out by the superb turn out at rallies in the Province addressed by both MDC President Tsvangirai and Vice President Gibson Sibanda. It must be stressed that this is a Province of some 600,000 registered voters. Even with its support in 2000 ZANU (PF) only secured 48% of the vote countrywide. If Masvingo changes its allegiances even slightly in favour of Tsvangirai that will give him a landslide victory countrywide. 

The net result of this painstaking exercise of going through the country Province by Province is that it demonstrates that the MDC and its President Tsvangirai now enjoy majority support in some two thirds of the physical area of Zimbabwe and the support of some three quarters of the population. If one takes a map of Zimbabwe and one draws a line eastwards starting at Lake Kariba, on the north eastern boundary of Binga constituency, continuing up the eastern boundary of Gokwe in a north westerly direction to eventually encircle Harare, continuing in a southerly direction (to exclude Chikomba Constituency) and thereafter north-eastwards to end at the Mozambique border north of Nyanga, one will see the extent of MDC’s support. An overwhelming majority of people who live south of that line now supports the MDC and President Tsvangirai. Everything below that line includes all the cities and most the rural areas. North of the line only includes the Gokwe area of Midlands Province and the three rural Mashonaland Provinces.

In the face of this, and only just over two months away from the Presidential election, all ZANU (PF) has to offer the people is violence. ZANU (PF)’s principal campaign platform of land to the people has been exposed for what it is, a sham. During the Christmas recess I have personally witnessed in two entirely separate areas, hundred of kilometres apart, occupiers having moved off land already occupied to plant crops in their communal land fields. Whilst that is obviously not the case countrywide even taking ZANU (PF)’s distorted figures only some 100,000 people have "benefited" from the so-called fast track land programme. Even those have simply been dumped on land without being given title, without the provision of water, schools, clinics and roads. In other words the vast majority of the some 6 million eligible voters have not benefited one iota from what is the nub of ZANU (PF)’s platform, indeed they are struggling more than ever before. In recent weeks it has emerged that many of the best farms have been reserved for Mugabe’s cronies. So much for "land to the people"!

ZANU (PF) has simply not addressed the key issue that is affecting everyone in the country, namely the collapsing economy and increasing poverty. Ironically even the ZANU (PF) campaign advertisements published in the last few days acknowledge this: "Say no to artificial shortages!" – "Vote for price controls!" The advertisements are an admission that under Mugabe’s government there are shortages and high prices which need controlling. Hardly a great reason to vote for the person responsible!

Finally violence is increasingly counter-productive for ZANU (PF). The people of Zimbabwe have simply had enough and their level of anger now far surpasses their level of fear. In short they simply want a change and a new start, not the same old man for another 6 years. And for those who agree with my assessment but who fear that the election will be rigged let me say the following. Rigging the election is undoubtedly part of Mugabe’s plan but can only succeed if the margin is only a few tens of thousand votes. There were strange figures that came out of some of the rural Mashonaland rural constituencies in 2000 where the ZANU (PF) vote appeared to have been bolstered. However even with that rigging ZANU (PF) had a deficit of some 70,000 votes against the combined total of the opposition. We are now two years on and the actual margin of defeat for Mugabe is going to be much more than 70,000 (it will be hundreds of thousands if Masvingo Province votes either for Tsvangirai or simply does not vote at all). A deficit of several hundred thousand votes makes rigging enormously difficult. 

A final word is necessary regarding the mood of the Zimbabwean people. The MDC has, in the last few weeks, brought a succession of cases to the High Court to level the playing field. As a result of case we have managed to get the numbers of new prospective voters who have registered. There are some 700,000 new registrations! One of the arguments advanced by the Registrar General’s office for their inability to supply us with a copy of the voters’ roll was because they had only managed to process to date some 80,000 of the these new registrations! Rest assured that the vast majority of these 700,000 new voters are not particularly happy with the present regime and they have not registered for fun. Why else do think government has made it so difficult for people to register? The people are ready.

The views expressed in this letter (are attributed to David Coltart - MDC Legal Affairs, Zimbabwe, and) do not necessarily reflect the views of the MDC (Movement for Democratic Change).

It's time to complete the change (in Zimbabwe) | The International Community 
Support of the people (in Zimbabwe) | The Candidate (Morgan Tsvangirai) | The Final Lap