A perspective on Zimbabwe by a Zimbabwean safari operator

The current political situation in Zimbabwe will in all likelihood deteriorate with the run up to general elections. It's very difficult to predict when elections will occur - probably sometime between May and August. We believe that Mugabe needs them sooner rather than later because economic pressures on the populace will undermine his support with time. At worst however, Mugabe will declare a "state of emergency" and postpone elections for up to 12 months in order to secure support - if this is going to happen, we should know within the next 8 weeks or so. At that point, we'd consider Zimbabwe off-limits to all but the hardiest travellers.

The land issue, farm invasions and government's disregard for the judiciary has dominated the press. Like many of our friends, relatives and past clients we watch international news reports in disbelief. Aside from the media world's pre-occupation with the more dramatic releases associated with Zimbabwean whites, they unfairly ignore the Zimbabwean blacks who are suffering equally. The press on the whole also ignores many of the less visible political and economic issues in Zimbabwe which affect us all (fuel shortages, dwindling foreign currency reserves, police raids on farmers and businessmen, intimidation of any opposition, parastatal strikes, state of the army, etc.). The press is generally failing to provide perspective.

Similarly we find very little comfort or assurance from local or international political leadership. There are far too many anomalies between what is being said and what is actually happening.

Many responsible people are trying to provide an objective analysis of what the real situation is - the following, we hope will add to this.

The first reality is that the country is practically bankrupt and every sector of the economy is desperate - the man in the street is suffering and there is a very clear but increasingly silent ground swell calling for change. Simple economic indicators (investor confidence, unemployment, productivity, import cover, GDP, budget deficit etc.) suggest that it's either a case of change in Zimbabwe or alternatively local economic/political/social chaos that will start affecting the rest of the region. The local business sector is practically impotent as a result of large and corrupt central governance in Zimbabwe, it has no way of leading the short or medium term outcome - unfortunately politics will determine Zimbabwe's economic future.
The second reality is that power is Mugabe's prime concern and any local political opposition is likely to be dealt with ruthlessly and at the expense of every sensible effort to restore judicial, political, economic or social order - be that effort local, regional or international. Mugabe's immediate demise is unlikely to result from any form of economic sanctions or for that matter legal action. Under present circumstances, free and fair elections are actually remote. Presidential elections are two years away. So long as Mugabe is in control, Zimbabwe will continue to deteriorate. We have little choice but to wait and see what creative diplomatic solution the opposition can come up with to get the country on some meaningful future path.
The third reality, is that Zimbabwe's people are on the whole peaceable, with a relatively small productive base, living in a land with limited natural resources relative to South Africa, Botswana and Namibia. Zimbabwe's prime natural resources are in fact developed farmlands and wildlife areas which together are responsible for the bulk of the country's wealth (mining has been in decline over the last two years). Both commercial farming and the safari sector are currently under good management. Commercial farmers are under pressure now, the safari sector is not. In the wildlife areas, Zimbabwe still has amongst the best safari options in Southern Africa in terms of infrastructure, guides, game and "visitor-experience" - it's very difficult to beat. We strongly believe that Zimbabwe's advantage here will continue despite local political problems - we do however expect that visitor numbers in Zimbabwe will drop dramatically this season.

In conclusion, Zimbabwe needs new leadership to make fundamental change. It's really not clear where that is at the moment and until it appears, we expect conditions to deteriorate in Zimbabwe. We're confident that safaris to Botswana and Zambia in particular won't be disrupted; in fact we anticipate an increase in these safari activities this season.

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				A travel advisory - Zimbabwe, April 2000
				A perspective taken from Lonely Planet by a Zimbabwean Safari Operator on 24 April 2000. The author elected to remain anonymous.

A travel advisory - Zimbabwe, April 2000