Our experience on the safari side of things whilst the current political battle has been developing is that two main areas have been largely untouched. Both Victoria Falls and Kariba/lower Zambezi are remote and relatively well isolated from trouble spots in the farming areas (Marondera, Karoi, Chinoyi, Macheke) and major urban centres (particularly Harare and Bulawayo). 

In both cases, Vic Falls and Kariba are on the border with Zambia and "buffered" by relatively large tracts of wilderness area which are either sparsely inhabited or in fact devoid of any habitation. Access into both is predominantly by air, often via international connections other than Zimbabwe's main international entry point in Harare.

The real question of course is what's going to happen after Presidential elections on 9 and 10 March. 

The general feeling is that Mugabe will win the election - losing it will have consequences far greater than simply a loss of political power so he and his inner circle continue to use every means available to avert it. 

A number of scenarios are likely to play out as a result of this. Unfortunately the one thing in common with all of them is that Zimbabwe as a whole will continue to receive a huge amount of bad press and the economy will continue to slide. A change will occur at some point (probably a few years from now) simply because the region as a whole has too much to lose by allowing it to continue (South Africa is the most likely catalyst).

For the medium term, the safari industry continues to gear for the worst. We anticipate that Vic Falls is least likely to be affected and a small selection of operators in the Zambezi Valley will continue to do business. Similarly, we expect a few of the Hwange operations to stay in business. 

• The rest of the country is likely to be a no-go area and that includes Harare, the Masvingo area and the east of the country. 
• We expect to see the Victoria Falls hub, particularly on the Zambian side, being increasingly used by regional and international operators. 
• Similarly, Lusaka will become the primary gateway into the Zambezi Valley (both shorelines).

So in a nutshell, you should expect an overall deterioration in Zimbabwe but in reality will find that Vic Falls and Kariba will remain viable options. The issue becomes one of personal safety.

In this respect, politicians and pressmen and their respective antics have concealed one underlying truth that nobody can deny: the average man in the street in Zimbabwe is generally peaceable and law abiding. You're more likely to be greeted with a warm smile than receive the slightest hint of hostility! In addition to taking sensible personal precautions as you would in any African town or city, it makes sense to pay some attention to logistics and stick to reputable hotels and safari operators. The latter point also has a bearing on your financial security when planning, booking and paying in advance over the next few months.

Victoria Falls is logistically simple. There's daily access from Johannesburg International in addition to other regional connections (Livingstone International remains an option in support of this). Victoria Falls also serves as a very convenient hub for accessing Botswana, Zambia, Namibia and the lower Zambezi once you get into it. Accommodation options are varied, competitive and reliable - since 1998, we've focussed on a very specific selection of hotels, lodges and bed/breakfast establishments in anticipation of troubles. (If anybody stays in business over the next few troublesome years, it's likely to be the people and companies on our "list of friends".)

On the lower Zambezi we've followed a very vigorous policy of supporting only the best operations since 1998 (it simply made sense to concentrate most of our trips with specific operators to reduce their vulnerability and ensure that our clients had first class treatment). One of our main advantages has of course been a very intimate knowledge of the area. Here the emphasis is on walking and canoeing safaris and once again our "list of friends", whilst quite small, is likely to remain for years to come. Kariba has served as the primary hub into what we regard as Zimbabwe's best safari region with access into Mana Pools and Matusadona. To a large extent we've geared our trips in the Valley around access via Vic Falls and Lusaka. We in fact treat Lusaka as a primary hub because of its regular and reliable international, regional and domestic connections (we do more safaris in Zambia than Zimbabwe so know these links very well). 

So, this has been a lengthy reply to a relatively short question! 

In concluding, 

• two areas in Zimbabwe are likely to remain viable options - Vic Falls and Kariba/lower Zambezi. 
• Personal safety is the real issue and we don't believe that the politicians and pressmen accurately reflect the mindset of the average Zimbabwean so quite frankly this should be a lesser concern. 
• Financial security is a very legitimate concern - stick to reliable operators and you shouldn't go wrong.....
• If you're unable to obtain travel insurance or are in any doubt about travelling to Zimbabwe in the short term then simply consider Botswana or Zambia as alternatives.

Postscript 22 January 2002:  In reality, Africa remains far from tamed and it'd be senseless to imagine that we'll ever do it.  In true perspective however, some small little enclaves that were civilised late in the 19th Century have remained so for over 100 years - civilised generations from now will in all likelihood still take pleasure from them well into the future....

Postscript 20 February 2002: The Foreign and Commonwealth Office recommends "against all holiday and non-essential travel to Zimbabwe"....

Postscript 22 March 2002:  Mugabe won the election.  Zimbabwe's been suspended from the Commonwealth for a year - a clear signal that anything less than good governance will be unacceptable.  We anticipate growing international pressure on Mugabe on the one hand, and a period of instability in the country for some time to come on the other.  Despite our Zimbabwean roots, we're not endorsing new travel plans in the country unless they're based from Victoria Falls or Kariba.  Give serious consideration to Zambia, Botswana and Namibia......

Postscript 3 April 2002: The US State Department made a public announcement on 29 March valid to 1 July to the effect that "citizens should consider postponement of non-essential travel to Zimbabwe until conditions in the country stabilize" and that "citizens should exercise caution when traveling anywhere in Zimbabwe and are urged to register with the U.S. Embassy, located at
172 Herbert Chitepo Ave., in the capital, Harare, telephone (263)4-250-593/4".

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